仲稔緊，今年做 Passive Investor 定 Active Investor 好。
如果Passive Approach就集中買匯豐(005)同宏利(945)獨沽兩味長期持有，唔使睇市，日日遊山玩水兼吹水即可。2007年匯豐應在140到160蚊之間上落，宏利就在260到300蚊之間上落，波幅約15%。即是話賺15%，Almost Sure Win！投資100萬就賺15萬，每月賺12,500，等於或多過初出矛盧既大學生每月既人工。咁易既事，你稔唔稔稔佢？
Active Approach就日日研究各行業，低買高賣，成年炒炒賣賣，年尾結數論英雄，可能賺10%，可能賺30%，可能賺50%，可能賺70%，可能翻一翻，可能仆街！咁既事，你又稔唔稔稔佢？
我仲稔緊，可能結果係Mixed Approach。
唉！做人永遠係咁，多稔野，稔多野，稔野多，多多野稔，稔多餘野，有時係美德，有時亦係缺點！
回應 DW：
股市波幅、經濟週期，應該投資者預期之內。因此匯豐15%回報之言，應以5至10年平均回報率理解，打工之穩定出糧和股市回報之不穩定，當然不可相提並論。但由於長期而言，股市趨勢仍是向上的，因此可作Analogy的說法。實際操作當然不能一年好市食燕窩，一年跌市食腸粉。一般做法是撥備一筆足夠全家一年生活的Cash食用，其餘投資，股市波幅升跌都不理會；保守一點者可撥備一筆足夠全家三年生活的Cash備用。絕大部份股災不會長過三年，所以可安然渡過經濟逆境。
至於你提出將資本一分為二之法，我也覺得可行，但紀律是決定成敗之要素，其次不能要求每次以一年為一個買賣週期，要隨時有面向逆市的心態。可參考1月11日之另文：保守定進取？
至於創科(669)，我仍樂觀，因為股價衰到貼地，乜都反映左啦！係米！？
1 comment:
it sounds reasonable that you can earn your living by investing in hsbc and get a 15% annual return. but it only assumes that there is constant economic stability or boom. as history tells there was always economic recessions as noted between 2000 and 20003 in hk, you can never hope to have 4% annual increase in hsbc price and the only revenue that can substain you living expenses was the 3-4% of dividend. it would lead you to live under poverty line if you only have $1m worth of hsbc . of course, it's another story if you have $10m. in times of recession, it's really hard to achieve a 15% return to support your leisure life.
as a private investor for life, remember it's for life, i think the strategy would be like this, you put half of your money in long term investment, e.g. oo5 , 945, another half for active one. and you need to earn as much as you can during crazy time,just because you can never earn 30 or 40% in recession. you need to survive during downturn. and the wisdom, the guts and lucks lies here. you sense the bull and you feel the polar bear.
i'm just thinking of another strategy. i calculate my annual cost of living( a decent one , very subjective for sure), i take 2-3m for active investment, i set a target % return, and i invest, once the target is met, i withdraw, and then eat and drink, read and play.
during crazy time, it might take 3 months or six months to meet the target, and then you are free for the rest of the year. you don't need to write the blog, visit the golden fish bowl every day.
the pe and eps of 669 is good, in the past five years it earns money. but two concerns. 1, it spends 1.8b to buy floor business from whirlpool only recently, not sure if such business would be a burden for 669. 2, 669 price drops from 19 to 10 in the past year, there would be a lot of " big gate crab" if 669 has to be up, you need to be more patient than these crab. dw
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